When GoingWiMAX.com recently asked its bloggers to forecast WiMAX developments in 2010, I was reminded of the old marketing adage, “Forecasting is difficult, especially of the future.” But expand the horizon from 2010 to the remainder of the decade, and I can spot a WiMAX development that looks sure-fire to me. And I start by looking at the past.

It’s been a trend since the Romans started building roads to move their troops across the Roman Empire: Products invented for war-making purposes eventually find application in commercial civilian use.

As a result of the United States’ lengthy involvement in Iran and Afghanistan, a number of military technologies have begun the trek into commercialization in recent years. Thermal imaging devices are now implanted in luxury automobiles. Virtual training platforms now help train workers in fields as diverse as emergency operations and taxi driving. A new generation of prosthetic devices, whose research was underfunded until unfortunate bomb incidents in Iraq and Afghanistan created waves of veteran amputees, is now being developed.

So it must pique the interest of those advocating WiMAX in surveillance applications to see new video processing technology being developed to analyze the flood of information cascading from drone aircraft in Afghanistan in particular. Within the next five to ten years, the analytical software being developed for the military could propagate into commercial use, launching a wider adoption of broadband surveillance video in police and security settings –and probably in other heretofore unconsidered areas as well.

Recently the New York Times characterized the military surveillance problem. Video collected by drones rose 300% from 2007 to 2009. New Reaper drones have more video capability than the Predator drones they’re replacing, with 10 cameras aiming in different directions, and an upgrade to 30 cameras scheduled for next year. Meanwhile, the military must devote increasing numbers of soldiers to analyzing the video as it arrives. In a military being enhanced to do more with fewer troops, it makes sense to not only automate but to speed up the analysis process.
Other requirements include sharing more data between branches and agencies such as the CIA, and annotating the raw video with graphics, text and other data.

Can you imagine Homeland Security wanting this technology? Police departments? Security details? Paparazzi? OK, I’m joking (a little) on the last one, but the point is that if the technology is available, there will be new arenas in which video surveillance and automated analysis make sense.

All of this is good news for WiMAX, especially for the stepchild known as unlicensed spectrum. So much of the focus is on the consumer market that we forget WiMAX has the ability to make unlicensed spectrum useful and popular in business or government settings. Before the decade is out, trickle-down technology from the military will boost WiMAX’s unlicensed penetration. The application endpoints will be nailed down, and WiMAX will offer the broadband transport to enable them.

Photo Courtesy of Jeremy Brooks

 

Cecil Taylor (Telecom Consultant)

Cecil Taylor is an independent consultant to companies in the telecom industry, including the utilities and health care vertical markets. His specialties include opportunity identification, strategic network architecture, requirements planning and definition, and project management.

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